Ann Med Med Res | Volume 7, Issue 1 | Research Article | Open Access

Modeling Malaria Elimination in Nigeria: Modified SEIRSEI Model with Intervention Effectiveness Analysis

Oyamakin SO* and Azeez BY

Department of Statistics, Biostatistics Unit, University of Ibadan, Nigeria

*Correspondance to: Oyamakin Oluwafemi Samuel 

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Malaria remains a significant public health threat despite numerous interventions. This study proposes a modified SEIR-SEI model to improve malaria elimination strategies in Nigeria. The model incorporates Long Lasting Insecticide-treated bed Nets (LLINs), Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies (ACTs), Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), Malaria Vaccines (MVs), and Environmental Sanitation (ES) alongside a compartment for individuals resistant to ACTs. We demonstrate the model's positivity, boundedness, and establish the disease-free equilibrium point. Stability analysis confirms the equilibrium's stability under certain conditions. The basic Reproduction number (R0) of 0.124 indicates a gradual decline in malaria prevalence. Further analysis reveals that combining all interventions minimizes mosquito breeding and R0 decreases as intervention rates increase, reaching 0.0441 with maximized intervention usage, suggesting potential malaria elimination in Nigeria. This model provides valuable insights for optimizing intervention strategies and achieving malaria elimination in Nigeria.


Malaria; Compartmental model; Basic reproduction number; SEIRR-SEI


Oyamakin SO, Azeez BY. Modeling Malaria Elimination in Nigeria: Modi ied SEIR-SEI Model with Intervention Effectiveness Analysis. Ann Med Medical Res. 2024; 7: 1072..

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